Time Analysis of an Emergent Infection Spread Among Healthcare Workers: Lessons Learned from Early Wave of SARS-CoV-2.

Aim: To find whether an emergent airborne infection is more likely to spread among healthcare workers (HCW) based on data of SARS-CoV-2 and whether the number of new cases of such airborne viral disease can be predicted using a method traditionally used in weather forecasting called Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA). Methods: We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 spread among HCWs based on outpatient nasopharyngeal swabs for real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests and compared it to non-HCW in the first and the second wave of the pandemic. We also generated an ARFIMA model based on weekly case numbers from February 2020 to April 2021 and tested it on data from May to July 2021. Results: Our analysis of 8998 tests in the 15 months period showed a rapid rise in positive RT-PCR tests among HCWs during the first wave of pandemic. In the second wave, however, positive patients were more commonly non-HCWs. The ARFIMA model showed a long-memory pattern for SARS-CoV-2 (seven months) and predicted future new cases with an average error of ±1.9 cases per week. Conclusion: Our data indicate that the virus rapidly spread among HCWs during the first wave of the pandemic. Review of published literature showed that this was the case in multiple other areas as well. We therefore suggest strict policies early in the emergence of a new infection to protect HCWs and prevent spreading to the general public. The ARFIMA model can be a valuable forecasting tool to predict the number of new cases in advance and assist in efficient planning.

BCG vaccine safety in COVID-19 convalescent adults: BATTLE a randomized controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: The safety of BCG revaccination is uncertain and there is no data on its use in patients with COVID-19. METHODS: COVID-19 convalescent adults confirmed by SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR in South-America were 1:1 randomized in the first 14 days of symptoms to BCG intradermal vaccine or placebo and evaluated for adverse events on days 7, 14, 21, and beyond 40 days. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04369794. RESULTS: 151 placebo and 148 BCG patients were included in the final analysis, with an average age of 40.7 years. No severe adverse event to BCG was reported. On day 7, 130 (87.8%) of the BCG recipients had local reaction, average size of 10.6 ± 6.4 mm, compared to only 2 (1.3%) placebos. Lesions gradually shrunk in size (mean 10.5 mm, 9.7 mm, and 6.8 mm at 14, 21, and beyond 40 days, respectively. The number of symptoms in any of the visits was not different between groups, and anosmia resolved earlier (25.7% vs. 37.1% at 7 days, OR = 1.70, 1.01-2.89, p = 0.035) in the BCG recipients. CONCLUSION: The BCG revaccination is safe in convalescent COVID-19 adults of a tuberculosis endemic region, regardless of tuberculin or IGRA test results. Local adverse events were similar though occurred earlier to that previously reported in children.

Randomized clinical trial of BCG vaccine in patients with convalescent COVID-19: Clinical evolution, adverse events, and humoral immune response.

BACKGROUND: The Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine may confer cross-protection against viral diseases in adults. This study evaluated BCG vaccine cross-protection in adults with convalescent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHOD: This was a multicenter, prospective, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind phase III study (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04369794). SETTING: University Community Health Center and Municipal Outpatient Center in South America. PATIENTS: a total of 378 adult patients with convalescent COVID-19 were included. INTERVENTION: single intradermal BCG vaccine (n = 183) and placebo (n = 195). MEASUREMENTS: the primary outcome was clinical evolution. Other outcomes included adverse events and humoral immune responses for up to 6 months. RESULTS: A significantly higher proportion of BCG patients with anosmia and ageusia recovered at the 6-week follow-up visit than placebo (anosmia: 83.1% vs. 68.7% healed, p = 0.043, number needed to treat [NNT] = 6.9; ageusia: 81.2% vs. 63.4% healed, p = 0.032, NNT = 5.6). BCG also prevented the appearance of ageusia in the following weeks: seven in 113 (6.2%) BCG recipients versus 19 in 126 (15.1%) placebos, p = 0.036, NNT = 11.2. BCG did not induce any severe or systemic adverse effects. The most common and expected adverse effects were local vaccine lesions, erythema (n = 152; 86.4%), and papules (n = 111; 63.1%). Anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 humoral response measured by N protein immunoglobulin G titer and seroneutralization by interacting with the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor suggest that the serum of BCG-injected patients may neutralize the virus at lower specificity; however, the results were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: BCG vaccine is safe and offers cross-protection against COVID-19 with potential humoral response modulation. LIMITATIONS: No severely ill patients were included.